S&P 500 inflection points

From business insider

Every quarter, JP Morgan Funds’ David Kelly puts out his ‘Guide to the Markets’. And in each presentation, Kelly includes a chart on S&P 500 inflection points.It maps the trajectory of the S&P 500 through two booms and two crashes. And in recent quarters, the message was that valuations were more reasonable during the current bull run relative to the last two peaks.But with valuations getting richer, investors can’t help but wonder if the next major inflection point is around the corner.

Silver and Gold / USDCHF and USDJPY - Market Trend update

I started this trend analysis that compares the the relationship between commitment of traders, open interest against the price changes in precious metals and currencies as I could not find a similar comparison on the internet. This would be a regular feature/update on this blog.

The graphs compare the changes in price, open interest and net commitment of non-commercial traders.
The graphs on the left are that of GLD and SLV ETFs and that on the right are currencies USD/CHF and USD/JPY.

The sentiments on Gold and Silver seems to be in disconnect with open interest falling in Gold and open interest raising in Silver. The price of both precious metals has been on the decline and seemed to have plateaued.

In comparison with that of USD/CHF which tends to have inverse relationship with Gold/Silver, is on the rise and looks to continue its trend with a potential reversal in commitment of traders positions and both price and open interest curving upwards.

USD/JPY - open interest on the increase with increase in price. uptrend may continue and no sign of reversal based on net position of non-commericial traders.

With that in mind, expect Gold and Silver to trade sideways/flat and USD/CHF to continue its uptrend (expecting a significant move) in the coming week.